On August 29, 2011, the Technical Advisory Committee of Anchorage Metropolitan Area Transportation Solutions (AMATS), the regional transportation planning agency, heard financial analyst Jamie Kenworthy summarize recent work by Scott Goldsmith of UAA’s Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) analyzing projected Bridge revenue.
Key findings:
• For the Seward/Glenn Highway to Highway project, ISER-CH2M HILL forecasted 17,700 vehicles daily crossing the Bridge in 2035 versus Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) forecast of 36,000 vehicles a day which KABATA used to project toll revenue in its Financial Plan. If the ISER-Ch2M HILL forecast is correct, halving toll revenue will add $2.4 billion to the cost of the state’s guarantee, subject to annual appropriation, under proposed Senate Bill 80.
• Historically there has been a fairly constant 1-1 correlation between the rate growth in households in Anchorage and the Mat-Su Borough and the rate of growth in car trips between Anchorage and Mat-Su. The WSA forecast assumes that by 2035 there will be twice the share of trips per household between Anchorage and Mat-Su in 2035 compared to today.
• The KABATA Financial Plan assumes the revenue of a Phase 2 expansion of the bridge from 2 to 4 lanes without including the cost of Phase 2. Additionally, KABATA estimates the Phase 2 cost at $375 million but $835 million is the median number for Phase 2 that the Federal Highway Administration produced in 2009 through an estimation process which KABATA participated in.
AMATS now is considering how to reconcile the proposed finances of the Bridge with the amount of funds necessary for other road projects in the proposed 2035 Anchorage Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). That
Plan is expected to have a public hearing in October and to go to the Planning and Zoning Commission and the Anchorage Assembly next winter.
Please click here to view the AMATS presentation which contains slides by Scott Goldsmith of ISER and additional financial analysis by Jamie Kenworthy.
